Friday COVID update for Avoyelles: 33 tests, 12 cases, no deaths

It's hard to find much "good news" in Friday's COVID update for Avoyelles Parish. However, due to a very small number of tests involved, the "bad news" shouldn't be blown out of proportion.

The Friday report showed Avoyelles had 12 new cases of COVID-19. A double-digit daily increase, even if it is just barely double digits, is not what the parish needs to see just after pandemic restrictions have been relaxed. For those who want a "scary number" to be worried about, those positive results are out of a total of only 33 tests -- reflecting a positive rate of over 36 percent. For those hoping the "scary number" is due to the rapid result tests that aren't used to determine the parish's official weekly positive rate, sorry.

There were 17 lab tests with eight positives -- a 47 percent positive rate. There were 16 rapid results with four positives, which is "only" a 25 percent rate.

The only good news was no additional COVID-related deaths, leaving the death toll at 123 -- 115 "confirmed" and eight "probable" for the virus.

Avoyelles' 14-month cumulative total for cases crossed another century mark, now standing at 4,208. Of those, 3,672 were identified with a molecular lab test while 536 were diagnosed with a rapid result test.

State officials have expressed concern that testing is decreasing as people are buying into the idea that the pandemic is on the ropes and will be down for the count soon. Meanwhile, there is a feeling that almost everybody who was willing to be vaccinated may have done so and those who aren't yet immunized are not likely to.

That one-two punch, combined with the threat of aggressive COVID variants, has health care experts worried that unvaccinated masses will be infected and spread the disease among that all-too-large group of unprotected individuals.

Another surge of cases, hospitalizations and deaths could mean the pandemic is still active in December, when those who were vaccinated may need to be vaccinated again. National COVID information sources are vague as to how long the vaccine protects a person. Some estimates are that its effectiveness starts declining after six months. Others say it could be like a flu shot and have to be taken annually. Then there's the wild card of "how much the virus mutates" between now and then.

The "vaccine nuts" argue that if a very large percent of Americans are immunized now, there will be fewer infections and less of a chance for a surge that will have a large COVID presence in communities when or if the vaccine wears off.