Avoyelles official claims COVID numbers inflated by duplicate tests
To the ordinary person watching the daily numbers related to the coronavirus pandemic, it looks like Avoyelles Parish has lost ground in the battle against the virus as the number of positive tests have climbed almost daily during Phase 1 of the statewide recovery plan.
The question has been asked, "Are we really ready for Phase2?"
Phase 2 of the state recovery plan begans Friday (June 5) everywhere in the state but New Orleans. In the last week of Phase 1, the number of positive tests for COVID rose from 140 to 151.
Numbers don't always tell the whole story -- or even an accurate story. This past Tuesday Avoyelles Parish Emergency Preparedness Director Joey Frank tried to put the rising numbers in perspective.
Numbers of COVID-19 cases released by the state have risen in Avoyelles. Although the state website indicates the numbers do not contain duplicates, Frank says his information shows they do.
"As of Monday, 38 of those 140 positive tests were of people with the virus who were tested more than once," Frank said. "For example, there was one person who tested four times between April 6 and May 25."
Subtracting the 38 additional test results after the first positive test, the 140 tests would represent 102 individuals from Avoyelles infected as of June 1. Avoyelles Hospital had only two COVID patients and Bunkie General had none.
CASES BY REGION OF PARISH
Dividing the parish into three parts, of the 130 positives 51 were in the Marksville-Mansura-Hessmer area, 49 were in the Bunkie-Cottonport-Evergreen area and 30 were in the S i m m e s p o r t - H a m b u rg-Moreauville-Plaucheville area.The official state number of cases for the regions is much less, but the numbers are not as accurate as Frank’s.
Avoyelles' number of positive cases will likely continue to climb due to parish residents answering Gov. John Bel Edwards' call for random COVID tests to get a clearer picture of the possible presence of individuals who have and can spread the disease but do not exhibit the tell-tale symptoms of fever, cough and difficulty breathing.
Last Monday there were two National Guard vans in the parish, one in Cottonport and one in Bunkie. There were 63 tests given in Bunkie and 51 in Cottonport. By contrast, it was reported the van in Jena conducted six tests. Frank said results from the random tests will be received in three to five days after they are taken.
Between actual new "asymptomatic" cases and virus victims who are being tested to determine if they have recovered only to find the disease is still hanging on, it appears likely the number of positive tests will continue to rise.
Hopefully, the illness will not claim any more lives in the parish.
'DASHBOARD UPDATE
There was another bit of negative news on the parish's fight with COVID earlier this week when Dr. Randall Dupont's "Economic Dashboard" update found that COVID-19 cases in central Louisiana overall increased from 270 on May 1 to 800 by May 31. The central region also holds the distinction of being the only one in the state with increasing cases and increasing hospitalizations.
Another interesting finding in the updated report is that Avoyelles continued to grade a "D" for social distancing for the Phase 1 period and there was a significant spike in mobility to the workplace.
In his report, Dupont used the mobility as determined by tracking cell phones, using Feb. 16 as a baseline for comparison. On May 2, travel to work was 16 percent below the Feb. 16 rate. On May 29, it was 48 percent above baseline.One possible explanation is the partial opening of Paragon Casino Resort under the Phase 1 restrictions. Approximately 750 laid off employees were able to return to work when the casino reopened many of its activities on May 20